A machine learning approach in Python is used to forecast the number of train passengers using a fuzzy time series model

Solikhin Solikhin, Septia Lutfi, Purnomo Purnomo, Hardiwinoto Hardiwinoto

Abstract

Train passenger forecasting assists in planning, resource use, and system management. forecasts rail ridership. Train passenger predictions help prevent stranded passengers and empty seats. Simulating rail transport requires a low-error model. We developed a fuzzy time series forecasting model. Using historical data was the goal. This concept predicts future railway passengers using Holt's double exponential smoothing (DES) and a fuzzy time series technique based on a rate-of-change algorithm. Holt's DES predicts the next period using a fuzzy time series and the rate of change. This method improves prediction accuracy by using event discretization. positive, since changing dynamics reveal trends and seasonality. It uses event discretization and machine-learning-optimized frequency partitioning. The suggested method is compared to existing train passenger forecasting methods. This study has a low average forecasting error and a mean squared error.

Keywords

Frequency-based partitioning; Machine learning; Prediction; Rate of change; Transportation public

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11591/eei.v11i5.3518

Prediction of passenger train using fuzzy time series and percentage change methods

Solikhin Solikhin, Septia Lutfi, Purnomo Purnomo, Hardiwinoto Hardiwinoto

Abstract

In the subject of railway operation, predicting railway passenger volume has always been a hot topic. Accurately forecasting railway passenger volume is the foundation for railway transportation companies to optimize transit efficiency and revenue. The goal of this research is to use a combination of the fuzzy time series approach based on the rate of change algorithm and the Holt double exponential smoothing method to forecast the number of train passengers. In contrast to prior investigations, we focus primarily on determining the next time period in this research. The fuzzy time series is employed as the forecasting basis, the rate of change is used to build the set of universes, and the Holt's double exponential smoothing method is utilized to forecast the following period in this case study. The number of railway passengers predicted for January 2020 is 38199, with a tiny average forecasting error rate of 0.89 percent and a mean square error of 131325. It can also help rail firms identify future passenger needs, which can be used to decide whether to expand train cars or run new trains, as well as how to distribute tickets.

Keywords

Double exponential smoothing; Forecasting; Fuzzy time series; Passenger train; Percentage change

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i6.2822

Membangun Sistem Smart Trash Menggunakan Mikrokontroler Motor Servo Panjerino

Yuda Hirmawan¹, Eko Riyanto², Solikhin Solikhin^3*

Abstract

To cultivate good behavior and care for the environment, SD Negeri 2 KuwasenJepara promotes proper waste disposal, but in reality, there are still many students who don't do it. The purpose of this research is to build a smart trash can to socialize waste disposal in an attractive way for students. We use a manual trash can that is integrated with the Arduino Uno. This smart trash system is able to open automatically when it detects movement within <50 cm and vice versa, and can emit a "Thank you for not littering" sound. The performance test results show that the ultrasonic sensor device opens and closes within 3.07 seconds at a distance of 15 centimeters and 3.06 seconds at a distance of 30 centimeters. The feasibility test of the tool obtained a score of ≥76% and an ease of use score of 87.7%.

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References

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.26877/jiu.v9i1.15444

JSON and MySQL Databases for Spatial Visualization of Polygon and Multipolygon Data in Geographic Information Systems: A Comparative Study

M. Zakki Abdillah^1*, Devi Astri Nawangnugraeni², Solikhin Solikhin³, Toni Wijanarko Adi Putra⁴

 Abstract

Purpose: Spatial data is used to display digital maps. Geographic information systems' access performance depends on spatial data formats. This study compared JSON and MySQL database data display speeds. Open-source RDBMSs work with various programming languages. JSON displays data in text format. The purpose of this study is to select spatial data for polygon and multipolygon Geographic Information Systems (GIS).

Design of study: access speed to the GIS determined the method. This study evaluated how effectively JSON and MySQL displayed digital maps in GIS using two types of geographical data. JSON was in the server directory, and MySQL was on the database server. To measure performance, these two spatial data sets were compared using the same server parameters. Testers employed various tools, operating systems, devices, and browsers.

Result: JSON data is stored on a live server and is easier to access while having more data. This test compares file size and speed on three online devices. This test generates JSON as the fastest geographic data, with an average access time of 3.9 seconds and 8.5 MB loaded. MySQL, which averages 9.7 seconds, loads 6.3 MB of files. Despite its larger file size, JSON is faster for spatial data, according to tests.

Originality: Its comparison of JSON and MySQL databases based on its application for geographical data display in GIS is unique. This test offers geographic data in JSON faster than MYSQL. JSON can be used to choose location data that GIS can readily access.

DOI : https://doi.org/10.15294/sji.v10i4.47393

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Aplikasi untuk Mencari Kelayakan Siswa Penerima Bantuan Pendidikan dengan Metode Simple Additive Weighting (Studi Kasus : SMK NU Ma'arif Kudus)

Syaifuddin Syaifuddin¹, Solikhin Solikhin^2*, Eko Riyanto³

 

ABSTRAK

Setiap periode SMK NU Ma’arif 2 Kudus melaksanakan program penyaluran bantuan kepada peserta didiknya yang kurang mampu. Dalam memberikan bantuan tersebut perlu dilakukan seleksi bagi para calon penerima. Permasalahan yang dihadapi panitia adalah seleksi dilakukan dengan menunjukpara peserta didik secara langsung dan acak sehingga mengalami kesulitan dalam menentukan siapa yang sebenarnya berhak menerima bantuan. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut dan mendapatkan calon yang berhak menerima serta mencapai standar yang diinginkan, maka diperlukan Sistem Seleksi Calon Penerima Bantuan Siswa Miskin (BSM) menggunakan Metode Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) sebagai pendukung keputusan.Metode SAW mencari penjumlahan terbobot berdasar pada kriteria penilaian yang telah ditentukan. Kriteria yang digunakan dalam sistem ini yaitu;jumlah penghasilan orang tua, nilai rata-rata rapor, jumlah kerabat/ saudara. Dari hasil pengujian sistem ini diperoleh luaran berupa perankingan nilai akhir mulai dari yang terbesar hingga terkecil. Hasil analisa perbandingan sistem ini dengan sistem lama terkait tingkat keakuratannya adalah 18 dari 30 siswa (60%) pada sistem lama, sedangkan sistem baru adalah 30 dari 30 siswa (100%). Hasil kuesioner terkait uji kelayakan sistem Seleksi Calon Penerima BSM menggunakan Metode SAWini sangat mudah digunakan (Perceived Ease Of Use) dengan nilai akhir 86,3%, dan sangat bermanfaat (Perceived Of Usefulness) dengan nilai akhir 88,3%.Penerapan sistem ini berkontribusi bagi SMK NU Ma’arif 2 Kudus dalam melaksanakan program penyaluran dana BSM secara optimal, transparan, tepat sasaran, dan berkeadilan serta dapat dijadikan sebagai pendukung keputusan bagi pemangku kepentingan.

Abstract

Every period SMK NU Ma’arif 2 Kudus carries out educational aid distribution programs to students who are less fortunate. In providing this assistance, it is necessary to select prospective recipients. The problem faced by the committee is that the selection is carried out by directly and randomly appointing students so that they have difficulty determining who is actually entitled to receive assistance. To overcome this problem and get candidates who are entitled to receive and achieve the desired standards, it is necessary to apply the eligibility selection of students receiving educational assistance using the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method as decision support. The SAW method seeks a weighted addition based on predetermined assessment criteria. The criteria used in this system are; the amount of parents' income, the average value of report cards, the number of relatives / relatives. From the test results of this system, the output is in the form of a ranking of the final values ranging from largest to smallest. The results of the comparative analysis of this system with the old system regarding the level of accuracy are 18 out of 30 students (60%) in the old system, while the new system is 30 out of 30 students (100%). The results of the questionnaire related to the feasibility test of the application for selection of students receiving educational assistance using the SAW Method are very easy to use (Perceived Ease Of Use) with a final value of 86.3%, and very useful (Perceived Of Usefulness) with a final value of 88.3%. The contribution to SMK NU Ma’arif 2 Kudus in this study was the making of an application to find out the eligibility of student beneficiaries using the SAW method. This can assist the committee in implementing the education aid fund distribution program in an optimal, transparent, on target and equitable manner and can be used as decision support for stakeholders.

DOI : https://doi.org/10.25126/jtiik.2021864023

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REFERENSI

BERLILANA, PRAYOGA, F.D., UTOMO, F.S., 2018. Implementasi Simple Additive Weighting dan Weighted Product pada Sistem Pendukung Keputusan untuk Rekomendasi Penerima Beras Sejahtera. Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (JTIIK), 5(4), p.419-426.

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Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 20 Tahun 2003 Tentang Sistem Pendidikan Nasional.

Retrived from

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Model Hybrid untuk Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk yang Hidup dalam Kemiskinan

Toni Wijanarko Adi Putra^1*, Solikhin Solikhin², M Zakki Abdillah³

Abstrak

Kemiskinan merupakan permasalahan global yang saling berkaitan dengan permasalahan sosial lainnya. Sebagian besar negara berkembang di dunia pasti mengalami hal tersebut dan berusaha mencari solusi untuk mengentaskan kemiskinan, seperti yang terjadi di provinsi Jawa Tengah, Indonesia. Kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah mengalami fluktuasi selama lima tahun terakhir. Secara spesifik, menurut data Badan Pusat Statistik, jumlah penduduk miskin pada tahun 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, dan 2022 sebanyak 3.897,20 ribu, 3.743,23 ribu, 3.980,90 ribu, 4.109,75 ribu, dan 3.831,44 ribu jiwa. Tinjauan terhadap naik turunnya kemiskinan pada tahun-tahun mendatang sangatlah penting. Untuk memerangi kemiskinan secara efektif, tidak hanya memahami penyebab kemiskinan tetapi memprediksi kemiskinan juga sangatlah penting. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi garis kemiskinan, jumlah penduduk miskin, dan persentase penduduk miskin di Jawa Tengah. Penelitian ini mengusulkan model peramalan hybrid untuk memperkirakan perubahan kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah. Di sini kami mengintegrasikan teknik statistik Holt-Winter triple exponential smoothing ke dalam fuzzy time series dengan pendekatan algoritma rate of change. Hasil uji kesalahan prediksi dengan metode Mean Absolute Percentage Error sangat kecil yaitu: garis kemiskinan sebesar 0,003%, jumlah penduduk miskin sebesar 0,005%, dan persentase penduduk miskin sebesar 0,004%. Temuan penelitian ini diyakini akan membantu pembuat kebijakan dalam mengembangkan strategi efektif untuk memerangi kemiskinan. Pengetahuan ini dapat menjadi dasar pengambilan keputusan alokasi sumber daya bagi pemerintah daerah dan pusat serta pembuat kebijakan.

 Abstract

Poverty is a global problem that is interconnected with other social problems. Most developing countries in the world certainly experience this and are trying to find solutions to alleviate poverty, as is the case in the province of Central Java, Indonesia. Poverty in Central Java has fluctuated over the last five years. Specifically, according to data from the Central Statistics Agency, the number of poor people in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 is 3,897.20 thousand, 3,743.23 thousand, 3,980.90 thousand, 4,109.75 thousand, and 3,831.44 thousand people. A review of the rise and fall of poverty in the coming years is very important. To fight poverty effectively, not only understanding the causes of poverty but also predicting poverty is essential. The aim of this research is to predict the poverty line, number of poor people, and percentage of poor people in Central Java. This research proposes a hybrid forecasting model to estimate changes in poverty in Central Java. Here we integrate Holt-Winter's triple exponential smoothing statistical technique into fuzzy time series with a rate of change algorithm approach. The prediction error test results using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error method are very small, namely: the poverty line is 0.003%, the number of poor people is 0.005%, and the percentage of poor people is 0.004%. It is believed that the findings of this research will assist policymakers in developing effective strategies to combat poverty. This knowledge can be the basis for resource allocation decisions for local and central governments and policymakers.

DOI : https://doi.org/10.25126/jtiik.1067484

Full text : PDF

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Prediksi Produksi Biofarmaka Menggunakan Model Fuzzy Time Series dengan Pendekatan Percentage Change dan Frequency Based Partition

Dwi Ekasari Harmadji¹, Solikhin Solikhin^2*, Uky Yudatama³, Agus Purwanto⁴

Abstrak

Masa depan biofarmasi semakin cerah. Akibat mahalnya harga obat modern, maka permintaan tanaman obat meningkat di dalam dan luar negeri. Hal ini karena biofarmaka banyak digunakan di industri lain, seperti makanan, minuman, dan kosmetik. Konsumen di seluruh dunia termasuk di Indonesia bergerak menuju produk makanan dan kesehatan yang lebih sehat dengan slogan "kembali ke alam". Dengan demikian permintaan tanaman obat sebagai bahan baku industri lainnya juga meningkat. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut diperlukan suatu prediksi untuk menentukan besaran kenaikan atau penurunan jumlah produksi komoditas strategis biofarmaka untuk beberapa tahun ke depan, sehingga Memungkinkan analisis pergerakan tren dari perkembangan data sebelumnya. Saat ini belum dijumpai studi peramalan deret waktu untuk memprediksi produksi biofarmaka dengan tingkat akurasi baik. Dalam eksperimen ini kami mengusulkan model peramalan fuzzy time series berdasarkan pendekatan percentage change sebagai himpunan semesta dan frequency-based partition yang dapat memberikan tingkat akurasi peramalan yang tinggi. Prediksi difokuskan pada biofarmaka untuk empat jenis rimpang yaitu Jahe, Lengkuas, Kencur, dan Kunyit yang dinilai menjadi prioritas utama pengembangan tanaman obat di Indonesia. Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistika tahun 1997-2020. Tujuan dari survei adalah untuk memprediksi dan menganalisa perkembangan produksi biofarmaka untuk empat jenis rimpang. Hasil prediksi menunjukan akurasi luar biasa dengan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error yang sangat kecil yakni Jahe 0,03%, Lengkuas 0,02%, Kencur 0,14%, dan Kunyit 0,03%. Dengan demikian hasil eksperimen ini dapat berkontribusi dan digunakan bagi pihak yang berkompeten untuk membantu dalam menentukan kebijakan strategis di masa depan.

Abstract

Biopharmaceuticals' future is brightening. Due to the exorbitant cost of modern treatment, the desire for medicinal herbs is growing. due to their widespread use in different industries such as food, beverages, and cosmetics. Consumers worldwide, especially in Indonesia, are gravitating towards healthier food and health goods. So the demand for medicinal plants as raw materials increases. To solve this issue, a forecast is required for the next few years on the increase or decline in production of strategic biopharmaca commodities. Currently, no reliable time series forecasting study exists for biopharmaca production. To achieve high predicting accuracy, we present a fuzzy time series forecasting model based on percentage change as a universal set and frequency-based partition. Ginger, Galangal, Kencur, and turmeric are predicted to be the most important rhizomes for biopharmaca research in Indonesia. Secondary statistics from the Central Statistics Agency for 1997–2020 This study's goal was to anticipate and analyze biopharmaca synthesis in four rhizomes. The prediction results are incredibly accurate, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error values of just 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.14%, and 0.03% for Ginger, Galangal, Kencur, and Turmeric, respectively. Thus, competent parties can use the outcomes of this experiment to help determine future strategic policies.

DOI : https://doi.org/10.25126/jtiik.20231016267

Full text : PDF

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Fuzzy Time Series dan Algoritme Average Based Length untuk Prediksi Pekerja Migran Indonesia

Solikhin Solikhin^1*, Uky Yudatama²

Abstrak

Perkembangan jumlah Pekerja Migran Indonesia (PMI) program Government to Government (G to G) Jepang bidang perawat (nurse) dan perawat orang berusia lanjut (care worker) mengalami naik turun dari tahun 2008 hingga 2018. Untuk dapat menganalisis jumlah PMI yang mengalami naik turun dengan mengukur perkembangan jumlah PMI saat ini dan memprediksikan kondisi tersebut pada masa mendatang, maka diperlukan model prediksi. Dalam penelitian ini diterapkan model fuzzy time series dengan menggunakan algoritme average-based length. Penentuan panjang interval yang efektif dapat mempengaruhi hasil prediksi yaitu dapat meningkatkan keakuratan yang tinggi dalam fuzzy time series. Hasil proses prediksi PMI program G to G Jepang tahun 2019 bidang nurse diperoleh 43.3, bidang care worker diperoleh 300 dan bidang keseluruhan diperoleh 325. Hasil uji kinerja prediksi PMI program G to G Jepang, menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) adalah 24.27% untuk bidang nurse dengan nilai akurasi prediksi 20–50% termasuk dalam kriteria “wajar”, bidang care worker 11.29% dengan nilai akurasi prediksi 10–20% termasuk dalam kriteria “baik”, sedangkan untuk bidang keseluruhan diperoleh 8.41% dengan nilai akurasi prediksi MAPE <10% termasuk dalam kriteria “sangat baik”. Berdasarkan hasil prediksi tersebut dapat digunakan sebagai pendukung keputusan bagi manajemen dalam membuat kebijakan terkait persiapan, perencanaan, penjadwalan, penempatan, dan perlindungan terhadap para calon PMI pada masa mendatang. Dengan demikian dapat meningkatkan kualitas kinerja sumberdaya manusia dalam memberikan pelayanan terbaik terhadap para calon PMI program G to G Jepang.

Abstract

The development of the number of Pekerja Migran Indonesia (PMI) Government to Government programs (G to G) in Japan in the field of nurses  and care workers experienced ups and downs from 2008 to 2018. To be able to analyze the number of PMIs experiencing ups and downs by measuring the development of the current number of PMIs and predicting these conditions in the future, a prediction model is needed. In this study fuzzy time series models are applied using an average-based length algorithm. Determining the length of an effective interval can influence the results of predictions, which can increase high accuracy in fuzzy time series. The results of the PMI program G to G Japan prediction process for 2019 in the nurse field were obtained 43.3, the care worker field was obtained 300 and the overall field was 325. The results of the G to G Japan PMI prediction performance test, using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were 24.27% for nurse field with predictive accuracy value of 20–50% included in the criteria of "reasonable", the field of care worker 11.29% with a prediction accuracy value of 10-20% included in the criteria "good", while for the overall field obtained 8.41% with MAPE prediction accuracy value < 10% is included in the criteria of "very good". Based on the results of these predictions it can be used as a decision support for management in making policies related to preparation, planning, scheduling, placement, and protection of future PMI candidates. Thus it can improve the quality of the performance of human resources in providing the best service to prospective G-G Japan PMI programs.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25126/jtiik.2019641177

Full text : PDF

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Data Penempatan dan Perlindungan PMI.

Retrived from

http://www.bnp2tki.go.id/uploads/data/data_05-10-2018_025400_Laporan_Pengolahan_Data_BNP2TKI_2018_-_SEPTEMBER.pdf