Prediction of passenger train using fuzzy time series and percentage change methods

Solikhin Solikhin, Septia Lutfi, Purnomo Purnomo, Hardiwinoto Hardiwinoto

Abstract

In the subject of railway operation, predicting railway passenger volume has always been a hot topic. Accurately forecasting railway passenger volume is the foundation for railway transportation companies to optimize transit efficiency and revenue. The goal of this research is to use a combination of the fuzzy time series approach based on the rate of change algorithm and the Holt double exponential smoothing method to forecast the number of train passengers. In contrast to prior investigations, we focus primarily on determining the next time period in this research. The fuzzy time series is employed as the forecasting basis, the rate of change is used to build the set of universes, and the Holt's double exponential smoothing method is utilized to forecast the following period in this case study. The number of railway passengers predicted for January 2020 is 38199, with a tiny average forecasting error rate of 0.89 percent and a mean square error of 131325. It can also help rail firms identify future passenger needs, which can be used to decide whether to expand train cars or run new trains, as well as how to distribute tickets.

Keywords

Double exponential smoothing; Forecasting; Fuzzy time series; Passenger train; Percentage change

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i6.2822